Convincing Ourselves

      I have been reading about luck and probability and its part in the equation for success. We have all heard the age-old phrases of how ‘successful people create their own luck’, or ‘the harder you work, the luckier you get’ and even ‘luck favours the prepared’. But can luck actually be created? Well yes and no. There are two things overall involved in making ‘chance work for you’. One is about positive reframing so that you feel lucky and the other is to get the odds in your favour. In fact, both of these feed into each other as well. Lets break it down.     Reframing the past events Our past has lead us to our present. Many view their past as a series of events that were partly random and partly by design. When we reframe our past as ‘good luck’ that has brought us to today and recognize how our life is better than it was yesterday, you suddenly loose the cynicism and embrace a kind of gracious attitude towards life. Not only does it make one happier, but ...

Self-efficacy, confidence in one's own ability to create change, undertake behaviors, is essential for optimum mental health. So much so that it is a major marker for depression. In fact, while doing through the literature on psychological fir aid for disaster and trauma survivors, I came across building self-efficacy, of a community or an individual, as an important part of the rehabilitation process. So how does one go about building self-efficacy, especially after one has gone through immense failure and loss? Staying the realm of psychology only, one can go down the route of regular counseling, and even hypnotherapy or EDMR, which has shown great success for trauma victims. However psychological first aid adopts a more behavioral approach. Building self-efficacy in such a case is best developed through a series of practice situations, given to a survivor (or even a community). It could be as simple as collecting water or cooking food. However, these practice sit...

The world is currently wrapped up in a pandemic, and an associated economic crisis. With this comes a whole lot of other problems, from logistics, to governance, and of course healthcare. Times are uncertain a lot of people may feel anxious or downright threatened. Its as if everyone is having to tread blind, while surrounded by danger, and no clue when it ends. Moreover, people are not just worried about themselves, but also about their loved ones. This is and of itself is a mental help challenge as well. The whole world is going through an emotional and cognitive crisis and this may have repercussions on our own health and well being as well. If not managed well, just like the health or economic crises, the effects could be lasting. Focus on what you can control: In a situation, where most of the variables are out of your control, one must focus on what can be controlled. This is necessary to bring a sense of control and therefore certainty back to the person. Even in war...

The markets last night took a dive globally. Everywhere from New York to Karachi, we saw sudden selling and almost panic in the past 24 hours. All of this on the back of coronavirus. Coronavirus? Coronavirus or nCOVID-19, is a new coronavirus that has been identified. It spreads as easily as the common flu and is about 10x more fatal. That may sound like a lot, however, considered the low mortality rate of flu, cCOVID-19 is only slightly more dangerous than pneumonia and far less dangerous than the recent Ebola or SARS, although it spreads more easily. Impact? The main reason why nCOVID-19 has become such a big deal is that in the beginning of the outbreak, no one was really sure how high the mortality rate would be. China was vigilant and the media reports were haunting, to say the least. Wuhan remains the city with the highest mortality rate and it set the stage for how coronavirus would be portrayed throughout the world. According to worldmeters.info there have been 11...

This post is based on a thought I had after listening to Bilal Hafeez on his last appearance on Bloomberg, talking about the impact of the coronavirus on the markets. I am not an expert in finance by any means and Bilal is essentially a veteran of the industry. He discussed what many others before him have spoken about as well. Algorithmic trading is now a massive part of global financial markets and trading. The thinking goes that because machines are doing a lot of trading, it is possible that they will make irrational mistakes and make the market crash eg during the recent Coronavirus incident. Modern Algos: Algorithmic trading is essentially now mainstream. The biggest and most successful of fund of them all is the legendary Madallion fund run by Renaissance Technologies. The fund uses leverage but is capped and not open to outside investors. It is arguably the most successful fund of its size. However, RenTech and its many funds are not the only players. Citadel is als...

Below is an abstract of the paper I wrote for " Telling the story of business: story-driven research in entrepreneurship, business, and marketing",  held at the University of South Wales in January 2020.  ================================================================= A Narrative Inquiry into the role of psychological factors in helping a Pakistani Family Business owner-manager, navigate turbulent market conditions   By Umair Usman, Usman Carpet House, Lahore, Pakistan Abstract This is an ethnographic narrative inquiry to identify the psychological factors that helped my father, a Pakistan family business owner-manager, through the great recession of 2006/2007. The study is retrospective in nature where I discuss my time, as a part of the family business during this period we experienced. I recall what I observed, and experienced, were psychological and mental factors that were inherent in my father and supported him through this...

The Article reviews the paper "Mindfulness meditation as an intervention for binge eating, emotional eating, and weight loss: A systematic review" published in the Journal "Eating Behaviours" in 2014 by Katterman et al. The paper itself takes a meta-study approach and examines 14 different studies where Mindfulness Meditation has been used as the primary method to influence emotional eating, binge eating as well as weight. One of the reasons why the authors may have looked at mindfulness meditation as the primary, rather than the only intervention, is probably because in real-life clinical settings, it is difficult to find practitioners using only one method alone. At the very least interventions are accompanied by some form of counseling or psychoeducation. It must be kept in mind that traditionally, it would be common to find practitioners using such mind-body approaches adjunct to another mainstream approach such as CBT. The authors looked at emotional...

Introduction Influencing the general public is a hotly debated topic in the policy. In any form of government reforms and agendas have to be 'sold' to the public. The government has traditionally been done through information dissemination through the media and done so quite effectively. An example can be of course selling wars or military interventions to the public. When the intent, however, is misinformation on a large scale, it becomes 'propaganda'. Despite its negative connotations, it is surely been present in democracies, as much as in dictatorships. A few years ago we have seen a move towards 'Nudging' individuals also called the Nudge Theory. This was popularized by Book by Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler in their book ' Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness '. An example of this could be the wording on a referendum to discourage a certain outcome or perhaps limiting choices for the consumers on the type o...

Business travel brings with it many instances where one has to be out of their comfort zone. Being away from home, one is at the mercy of their surroundings, which at times can be very limiting. As someone who takes a lot of care in eating right and eating well, it often becomes difficult for me to find a balanced meal. This is an issue not only while in the plane or in an airport or train station, but also during business meetings and dinners. Unlike at home, or in one's daily routine, there is little control over the situation. During my previous trip I Took inspiration from Self Hypnosis and related CBT techniques to self regulate what I eat and how much I eat, while keeping my energy levels relatively high. This included several sessions of self hypnosis before I left for the trip which seemingly had little result. However, one on the trip, some positive statements stuck with me in my mind which kept me in check. The results were actually very good. Much better ...

Avoiding pain is a great motivator in human beings. Neurologically, in fact, it is a bigger motivator than seeking pleasure. This is more so during childhood phase but is also prevalent throughout life As children we tend to develop habits, solely to survive or to avoid the ‘threat’ of being killed. Human beings are tribal by nature and we survive by being in tribes. A child will copy his peers, to try to fit in. They may dress up as their peers or have the same interests. This is not at all bad as it helps us develop necessary social and life skills. However, a child that has been bullied by kids or abused at home, may want to ‘avoid’ groups as that is where their survival is. They may believe they are safer away from groups, which they view as a threat. A ridiculed child feels useless and unwanted around people and anyone in any tribe that is unwanted is bound to die alone (at least metaphorically these days).  A child who has parents that shower love and attention base...